What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions
The EU’s GHG emissions fell to 3062 MtCO2e in 2023. In 2024, GHG emissions fell by 2% from 2023 levels (excluding LULUCF). Emissions have been declining since 1990 and fell 36% between 1990 and 2024.1 In 2024, CO2 accounted for 80% of the EU’s emissions. Methane is the second largest greenhouse gas contributor at 13%, mostly coming from agriculture.
Transport is the largest emitting sector, responsible for 24% of the EU’s total GHG emissions. This is followed by the power sector (at 22%) and heavy industry (accounting for 20%) – including emissions from energy use and industrial processes (i.e. product feedstocks used in manufacturing). Emissions from the power and industry sectors have been falling sharply since 2010.
Power sector emissions peaked in 2007 and since then have fallen rapidly, supported by the strong growth of renewables and the steady reductions in coal-fired power generation. Emissions from buildings and industry have also fallen since the 1990s, though transport emissions rose until 2007, after which emissions fell modestly and stagnated.2 While transport sector emissions are below pre-COVID levels, they have rebounded since 2020.
The EU has introduced sweeping environmental regulations to reduce emissions under the umbrella of the Fit-for-55 package and the European Green Deal. However, climate action to meet these goals seems to be stagnating as member states are not translating the EU’s level of ambition into national policies. According to a Commission assessment, EU member states are not implementing policies fast enough to reach its net zero goal and further action is required.3
the European Union's 2024 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy
Fossil fuels supplied 69% of Europe’s energy demand in 2024.4 Despite its high share in the energy mix, fossil fuels have been declining. Between 2010 and 2024, the total energy supply from oil has fallen 15%, while gas has fallen by 26% and coal by 53% over the same period. Coal while in rapid decline, still accounts for 10% of the primary energy mix, which is mostly consumed by Poland and Germany.5
Final energy consumption has stagnated over the past decade: while demand has grown, the increase of more efficient renewables and electricity in end-use sectors has offset growing energy consumption.6 Buildings (including households and businesses) consume the most energy of any other end use sector, accounting for 40%, followed by transport at 31% and industry at 13%.7 On the production side, fossil fuels within the EU have also contracted, with gas production falling 75% between 2010 and 2024.8
Renewables in the EU’s total energy mix reached 20% in 2023, of which 12% came from biomass. The EU remains heavily dependent on energy imports to meet its demand, of which almost all are fossil fuels. 9
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU typically spent EUR 57-62 bn annually on fossil fuel energy subsidies. After the invasion these subsidies spiked in 2022 to EUR 136 bn, before slightly falling to EUR 111 bn in 2023, adding additional cost pressure to the price of electricity for consumers and businesses. 10 With a new conflict starting in 2026, the US-Israel war on Iran has resulted in the EU paying EUR 27 bn more for fossil fuel imports, for the same volume of fuel it imports in just three months.11 A month later, that added cost rose to EUR 35 bn.12 The existing solar fleet across the EU has saved the EU EUR 100 mn each day between March 1st -17th 2026 through avoided gas imports.13
The energy mix and dependence on fossil fuel imports varies greatly across EU member states. Importing fossil fuels comes at a high price – after phasing out Russian supplies, the EU has now largely switched to US LNG imports. The EU spends EUR 396 bn annually on fossil fuels imports – making it highly dependent and vulnerable to global fuel shocks. In contrast, it only spends EUR 330 bn annually on renewables.14
The EU has not set a phase-out date for fossil fuels.