What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Brazil
Transport electrification is a critical gap
Transport is Brazil's largest contributor to energy sector emissions at 222 MtCO₂, or 50% of energy emissions, in 2024. Under the HPA scenario, electricity’s share of transport energy grows from 0.2% of transport energy today to 15.5% by 2035 and 81% by 2050, as oil is fully phased out. This will improve energy efficiency, reducing total energy demand by 40% and lowering emissions from the sector towards zero by 2070. While biofuels play an important bridging role in the near term and draw on Brazil’s existing capacity, their long-term expansion carries significant risks. Without stringent land and water use and land rights protections, the demand for feedstocks required to produce biofuels can drive deforestation, water stress and displacement of traditional land users.
Brazil's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
Data References
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Wind and solar must scale rapidly to keep Brazil's power system on track with 1.5°C
Brazil's grid is already over 88% renewable, but wind and solar, currently at 21% of generation (146 TWh), become the backbone of the transition, reaching 50% by 2035 and 82% by 2070, with total electricity output growing from 706 TWh today to nearly 4000 TWh by 2070. As climate impacts intensify and threaten hydropower generation, this will be key for power system resilience. Power sector emissions cross net zero by 2035 and turn net negative thereafter. This requires sustained annual capacity additions backed by USD 23.6 billion/yr in investment through 2030, and urgent action on curtailment through expansion of transmission and storage infrastructure.
Brazil's renewable advantage makes it a natural green industry leader
Industry can shift from 40% fossil fuel dependency today to near-zero by 2050, with electricity meeting 62% of industrial energy demand by 2050, up from 19% in 2023. For hard-to-abate processes where electrification is not possible, green hydrogen emerges as a key decarbonisation lever. Process emissions, currently at 102 MtCO₂e, fall to 29 MtCO₂e by 2050 but plateau at around 22 MtCO₂e, a level of residual emissions that requires measures beyond fuel switching, including demand-side interventions.