What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions
In 2024, India’s emissions reached roughly 4 GtCO2e excluding LULUCF.1 Nearly 75% of these emissions came from fossil fuel combustion in the energy sector, 13% from agriculture, and most of the remainder from industrial processes and waste. Within the energy sector, electricity generation and industry were the largest end-use sectors. India emits 7% of global GHG emissions, making it the third largest emitter in the world 2. However, India’s per capita emissions are half the global average.
Non-CO₂ emissions remain highly significant as the country is the third largest methane emitter in the world. Agriculture contributes a substantial share of national emissions; predominantly CH₄ and N₂O from enteric fermentation, rice cultivation, and fertiliser/manure management.3
The near-term picture is mixed: overall, emissions continue to trend upwards due to demand growth in electricity in the end use sectors such as buildings and heavy industry, but emissions growth in the power sector has begun to show signs of moderation as more renewables come online.
India is also one of the world’s most climate vulnerable countries. Climate stressors like extreme heat will contribute to a substantial rise in energy demand by 2030, along with other developmental factors.4 More effort is needed to decouple rising energy demand from emissions through deployment of renewable energy. To implement the necessary emissions reductions, however, significant international support is needed.
India's 2024 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy
India’s energy system is marked by rapidly growing demand. Much of this demand is being met by an expansion of solar and wind capacity, although India remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, particularly coal. Coal accounted for 46% of total primary energy supply in 2023, with oil at 25% and fossil gas at 5%. Bioenergy and other non-fossil sources (including renewables and nuclear) supplied the remainder.5 India’s energy system is also characterised by high import dependence, particularly for oil and gas, exposing it to international price volatility and supply disruptions.
The transport sector is responsible for much of India’s oil consumption, with oil meeting about 95% of road transport demand. This reliance is reinforced by high import dependence, with India importing over 85% of its crude oil requirements. As a result, the sector is highly exposed to international price volatility and geopolitical risks. Recent policy has focused on boosting domestic exploration and production, with ongoing licensing and regulatory reforms to attract investment and enhance energy security.6
Current policies continue to promote gas as a transition fuel. These include domestic gas pricing reforms, the expansion of city gas distribution networks, and further LNG import infrastructure development, with a target to raise the share of gas in the primary energy mix to 15% by 2030.7,8 However, around half of India’s gas supply is met through imports, primarily in the form of LNG, creating exposure to global gas market fluctuations, particularly during periods of tight international markets.
The current energy landscape is shaped by two parallel strategic directions: the rapid expansion of renewable energy and continued thermal power additions. By mid-2025, India reached its 2030 NDC target of 50% installed capacity from non-fossil sources. However, India is also planning to add around 80 GW of new coal capacity by 2032 to meet growing demand and address reliability challenges.9
Government support for fossil fuels remains stronger than for clean energy. In FY 2024, fossil fuel subsidies amounted to USD 11 billion, compared to USD 3.9 billion for clean energy, although this gap has narrowed in recent years.10