What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
In 2024, Senegal’s GHG emissions reached 32.2 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF, mainly from agriculture (43%), the energy sector (35%), industrial processes (14%) and the waste sector (6.5%).
Agriculture emissions continue to increase gradually, with methane and nitrous oxide gases accounting for 27% and 16% of Senegal’s total emissions, respectively. Even though we do not develop emissions reduction pathways for non-CO2 emissions, it remains a key part of Senegal’s emissions and socio-economic profile. Considering agriculture’s large impact on emissions (and as a signatory of the Global Methane Pledge), it may be necessary to make deeper emissions cuts across other sectors to compensate for un-abatable non-CO2 emissions.1
The transport sector is the dominant source of the energy sector’s emissions (14% of national total emissions), followed by the power sector (12%). The industry sector, through fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes, accounted for 18.7% of Senegal’s total GHG emissions.
Senegal's 2024 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy
Since 2000, Senegal’s energy mix has been primarily reliant on oil, followed by biomass.2 By 2023, oil (largely imported) accounted for 60% of total energy supply, while biomass accounted for 37%. In 2023, refined oil products represented just under 20% of national imports, and crude oil 8%.3
Heavy reliance on imported oil, combined with fossil fuel subsidies, has placed significant pressure on public finances and exposed Senegal to global oil price volatility, contributing to public debt pressures. In March 2026, following the Iran war, Senegal’s public debt reached 132% of GDP.4
Senegal launched its first offshore oil and gas operations in 2024 and plans to operate its second refinery by 2029 as a strategy to enhance energy security and ease fiscal constraints.5, 6 This is also reflected in its Priority Action Plan 3 (2024-2028) which places strong emphasis on oil and gas development.7 At the same time, Senegal has committed to a just energy transition away from coal through the Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement at COP26.8 While the phase-out of coal is consistent with the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, continued support for oil and gas development contradicts the oil phase-out trajectory under this pathway. With Senegal’s pursuit of a gas-to-power strategy, such domestic oil and gas expansion could further heighten the risk of long-term infrastructure lock-in.
Parallel to this, since adopting renewable energy and energy efficiency action plans for 2015–2030, Senegal has implemented regulatory, financial, and capacity-building measures to scale deployment of renewables.9 In 2023, Senegal met its unconditional NDC renewable targets ahead of schedule and, under its Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), has committed to increasing renewables to 40% of the electricity mix by 2030.10,11
A 2022 study found that, by shifting to renewables, Senegal could generate 6700 job years per MWh annually,12 over four times more than is expected from investing in the fossil gas sector (1500 annual job years per MWh).13 Scaling renewables not only decarbonises the economy, but provides sustainable development opportunities through reducing the risk of expensive carbon lock-in, slashing the fossil fuel import bill, and supporting a just and inclusive transition.