What is New Zealand's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Current situation
In 2022, New Zealand’s emissions totalled 79 MtCO₂e, excluding LULUCF. The agriculture sector was the largest contributor, accounting for 53% of these emissions, followed by the transport sector at 17%.1 The LULUCF sector, primarily forest land, is a net sink of emissions meaning it absorbs more emissions than it generates. New Zealand’s net LULUCF sink accounts for -19 MtCO₂e and is equivalent to about 25% of emissions.
Since 2000, national GHG emissions excluding LULUCF have remained above 80 MtCO₂e – except for 2022. Emissions declined 4.2% between 2021 and 2022, primarily driven by an increased share of renewable electricity, the closure of the country’s only oil refinery (Marsden Point Oil Refinery), and reduced use of nitrogen fertiliser in 2022.2
Emissions from road transport, the largest source within the transport sector, decreased by 1.6% over the same period, largely due to lower petrol consumption (likely from changes in driving patterns and the uptake of more fuel-efficient vehicles), highlighting the positive outcome delivered by the Clean Car Discount Scheme.3 Meanwhile, carbon removals from the LULUCF sector fell by 6%, likely continuing the trend driven by a higher proportion of younger forests with lower sequestration capacity following historically high harvest rates in 2021.4
New Zealand's 2022 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
In 2022, 55% of New Zealand’s primary energy came from fossil fuels (of which 34% was sourced from oil, 16% from gas, and 5% from coal). Renewables met the remaining 45%.5 New Zealand has set a target that 50% of total energy consumption will come from renewable sources by 2035. The transport sector is responsible for around three-quarters of New Zealand’s oil consumption.6
Historically, New Zealand’s electricity generation mix is highly renewable, accounting for 80% with continual growth since 2008. In 2023, the electricity mix was 88% renewable, roughly 60% hydro, 18% geothermal, and 12% coal, oil and gas combined.7 New Zealand has an aspirational target of 100% renewable electricity by 2030.8 New Zealand is part of the Powering Past Coal Alliance and is committed to phasing out of coal for unabated electricity generation by 2030.9
Targets and commitments
2035 target in 2025 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
- Reduction in net GHG emissions to 51–55% below gross 2005 levels by 2035 [a single-year target].10
When excluding LULUCF, New Zealand’s target translates to:
- 29 – 39% below 2005 levels or 52 – 61 MtCO2e by 2035.11
When including LULUCF, New Zealand’s target translates to:
- 31 – 37% below 2005 levels or 38 – 42 MtCO2e by 2035.
2030 target in 2021 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
- Reduction in net GHG emissions to 50% below gross 2005 levels by 2030, or to an estimated 579 MtCO2e over 2021-2030.1213
When excluding LULUCF, New Zealand’s target translates to:
- 32–35% below 2005 levels by 2030 or 56 – 58 MtCO2e.14
When including LULUCF, New Zealand’s target translates to:
- 30% below 2005 levels or 43 MtCO2e by 2030.
Long-term target
As formulated by the country:
- Net zero on all GHGs (excluding biogenic methane) and 24–47% reduction in biogenic methane below 2017 levels by 2050.15