What is New Zealand's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
New Zealand’s transport sector accounts for 17% of national GHG emissions excluding LULUCF, making it the second largest contributor to emissions after agriculture.1 It has also been the fastest growing source of emissions since 1990.2 New Zealand has the fifth highest per-capita transport emissions among developed countries, and its transport CO₂ efficiency remains low by international standards.3
New Zealand's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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These emissions are driven by a heavy reliance on fossil fuels, poor vehicle fuel economy, dependence on road freight, low-density urban living, and transport planning that prioritises car use.4 In 2022, fossil fuels accounted for 99.6% of transport energy consumption.5
Under the Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the potential for rapid electrification to displace fossil fuels, fossil fuel reliance in the transport sector would fall to around 98% by 2030 and further to 69% by 2050, with electricity accounting for 14% and biomass 15%. To align with the Paris Agreement, the sector will need to make steep cuts in CO₂ emissions from transport energy demand during 2030-2050. Raising ambition earlier could accelerate decarbonization in this sector.
New Zealand is not on track to decarbonise its transport sector, a course which is difficult to correct amid frequent policy changes in the sector across successive governments. While some government initiatives show promise – such as providing a $30 million grant for low-emissions heavy vehicles and removing regulatory barriers under the Supercharging EV Infrastructure Work Programme – the repeal of earlier policies which promoted EV uptake has set progress back and created significant policy uncertainty.6
New Zealand's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for New Zealand
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Transport sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
15
|
13 to
15
|
10 to
13
|
7 to
11
|
4 to
9
|
2067
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-13 to
0%
|
-33 to
-13%
|
-53 to
-27%
|
-73 to
-40%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
0
|
1 to
1
|
2 to
4
|
4 to
9
|
8 to
14
|
|
Share of biofuels
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
1 to
1
|
3 to
15
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
2
|
1 to
4
|
2 to
9
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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