What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Long term pathway

Germany has set a target to reach climate neutrality by 2045, enshrined in its Climate Protection Act.⁴4

Under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, Germany’s total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) fall by 65% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This is in line with Germany’s 2030 national GHG reduction target. However, current emissions projections indicate a potential gap of 2.5% by 2030 compared to the HPA scenario, leading to a reduction of 62.5%.⁵5 By 2040, GHG emissions fall by 94% under the HPA scenario, and by 98% by 2050. Germany’s current emission projections will likely fail to meet these targets, as well as its own nation target to be climate neutral by 2045. Currently, Germany is projected to only reduce its total GHG emissions by 80% by 2040.⁶6

Under the HPA scenario, GHG emissions remain at around 26 Mt CO₂e/yr beyond 2050, while CO₂ emissions (excluding LULUCF) reach net zero by the early 2040s, followed by sustained negative emissions from then on. This is driven by a combination of phasing out fossil fuels and scaling up carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies such as direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). The remaining GHG emissions are likely residual methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions in agriculture and waste. Methane and nitrous oxides from energy use and industrial processes are gone by 2040 under the HPA.

Using carbon dioxide removals to counterbalance residual emissions is unavoidable if net zero GHG emission are to be achieved. CDR must complement the phase-out of fossil fuels and not a substitute of climate action. At the same time, large-scale negative CO₂ emissions from CDR will be necessary to bring global temperatures back below 1.5^oC after any overshoot.⁷7 While we do not downscale CDR to the national level, in the HPA scenario the EU28 region provides only 5% of engineered removals in 2050. Future work will further explore the regional distribution of CDR, considering both the potential for long-term geological storage and the fiscal capacity to pay for removals.⁸8

Germany has not set targets for long term, permanent carbon dioxide removals, but has been taking steps to develop storage, transport, research and governance architecture.⁹9 Under the HPA scenario, CDR deployment rapidly scales up beyond 2030, driven by a mix of direct air capture with CCS (DACCs), biomass with CCS (BECCs) and by afforestation/reforestation. The HPA avoids large scale nature-based CDR given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks to remain given the growing risk of climate impacts.¹⁰10

Germany has locked itself into long term fossil fuel supply contracts that will make it impossible for it to achieve its climate neutrality target. Based on signed LNG supply contracts to date, most of which are with US companies, Germany will import 3,022 million tonnes of LNG until 2049. For context, in 2024 it imported a total of 6.3 billion m³ (converted to 4.6 million tonnes¹¹11) of LNG.¹²12 Furthermore, much of the LNG produced in the US comes from fracking, which is even more carbon intensive than other gas extraction methods.

Germany has set an annual LULUCF target of carbon removals of at least 25 MtCO₂e annually in 2030; 35 MtCO₂e in 2040 and 40 MtCO₂e in 2045.¹³13 However, as of 2023, the LULUCF sector is acting as a source of emissions not a sink, releasing 69 MtCO₂ annually, with emissions having grown significantly since 2018 due to damages to forests caused by extreme drought. Emissions grew from 4 MtCO₂ in 2017 to 69 MtCO₂ in 2023.¹⁴14 Germany is likely over relying on the land sink to count towards its emission reductions, risking its ability to meet its own targets unless it accelerates the phaseout of fossil fuels.