What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

In the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, renewables make up 37% of the primary energy mix by 2035, up from 10% in 2023. By 2040, this rises to 70% and 83% by 2050. Demand for biofuel peaks in 2040, after which it plateaus. Biofuels will be needed largely in the buildings and transport sectors – but measures should be taken to limit their demand due to scalability and sustainability limitations.²2^,33

The HPA scenario results in primary energy demand falling by around 40% by 2035 compared to 2023 levels, and 43% by 2050. Coal is essentially phased out of Germany’s primary energy by 2035, gas by 2040 and finally oil by 2050 as cheap renewables push them out of the mix. Despite the projected increase in demand for electricity, the absolute level of primary energy consumption will decrease due to the higher efficiency of renewable electricity and electro-technologies. From 2035, energy demand begins to level out as most fossil fuels are phased out. This reduction in demand is due to efficiency gains from electrification and renewable energy sources. To sustain energy efficiency gains, end-use measures (particularly in buildings) will be essential to reducing overall energy demand.

The HPA scenario charts a path to a fossil free future. This comes at a time when Germany’s dependency has not only been flagged as a climate concern but an energy security problem. Following the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, and the subsequent global energy crisis, higher fossil fuel prices has put pressure on Germany’s economy.

Germany is a net fossil fuel importer. In 2024, 70% of the Germany’s total energy was imported – down 14% from 2000.⁴4 In 2024 alone, Germany spent EUR 80 bn annually on importing fossil fuels⁵5 and spent about EUR 41 bn in subsidies for fossil fuels in 2023, increased from EUR 17 bn in 2015.⁶6 In its attempt to wean itself off Russian gas, Germany has now become overly dependent on the US, especially for its fossil gas supply since 2022.⁷7 Germany relies on only 1% of fossil fuel imports from the Strait of Hormuz but the conflict has impacted prices globally and is expected to create a fuel supply crunch.⁸8 All these factors speak to unnecessary increase in government spending towards fossil fuels rather than investing more in renewables. Investing in renewables will not only increase Germany’s energy independence and overall resilience but also reduce overall energy demand and costs for consumers. Despite decreasing demand for gas, Germany is overinvesting in gas infrastructure to accommodate the growing number of LNG supply contracts it is making with US companies. The government will spend an additional EUR 55 bn in constructing permanent LNG terminals to import its LNG from the US.⁹9