What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Transport

Decarbonising the transport sector

The transport sector accounted for 137 MtCO2e, or 22% of Germany’s total GHG emissions in 2023. Emissions in the sector have fallen roughly 7% since 2010, but this is a far slower rate compared to other sectors. Road transport is responsible for the bulk of Germany’s transport emissions (97%), predominantly from private passenger vehicles.1

Transport (including road, rail, air, and sea) is still largely powered by fossil fuels, with oil making up 58% of transport fuel demand, and electricity at only 3.6% in 2023.2 Germany’s passenger transport is dominated by private cars (80%) in 2024, followed by rail (10%) and aviation (6%).3 To decarbonise the complete sector, modal shifts from private vehicle to more shared public transport and active mobility (cycling and walking) are needed. Instead since 1990, while the modal share of passenger cars has fallen, passenger travel has largest shifted to more carbon-intensive air travel, which almost doubled since 1990. There has been a smaller shift towards rail, roughly 3% increase, over the same period.4

For passenger cars, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) uptake was growing rapidly, slowing down in 2023, and for the first time, dipping in 2024. As of 2025, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on the road reached only 2.2 million vehicles, with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and fuell cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) rising to to 3.5 million. In 2026, the market share of new vehicles which were BEVS grew to 23%, rebounding following a dip to 13% in 2024.5 Between February and March of 2025, corresponding with the fuel price spike triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran, new BEV sales increased by 53%, more than any other fuel type.6

For electric trucks however, growth trends continued strong well into 2024.7 In 2025, the share of new battery electric buses grew to 26%.8 Zero emission buses represented half of the new buses added to bus fleets in cities. Zero emission busses in cities amounts to 14% of the stock. While this is predominantly in cities, the trend is catching on in rural areas.9

Germany's energy mix in the transport sector

petajoule per year

Scaling

Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector.

Under the HPA scenario, energy demand will fall by 39% by 2040 and by 45% by 2050 compared to 2023 levels. This reduction comes from the increased energy efficiency offered by electricity as a fuel. Accelerating electrification and shifting transport would greatly reduce reliance on inefficient and costly fossil fuels and shield consumers from the costly impacts of price fluctuations.

To align with the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, the Germany’s domestic transport sector (excluding international bunker fuels) would need to achieve a 48% electrification share by 2030, up from 3% in 2023. Electrification rapidly grows to 70% in 2040 and 95% by 2050. These strong electrification targets will be driven by the road and rail sectors for both passenger vehicles and freight trucking. By 2050, oil will be completely phased out from Germany’s transport sector.

Battery electric buses make up 85% of the zero emission buses with the rest from hydrogen fuels cells. Electric buses still have significantly high upfront costs, and the current level of uptake has largely been attributed to financial support from Federal funding.10

Biofuels can be used to reduce the carbon intensity of the remaining internal combustion engine (ICE) fleet on the road until full penetration of EVs has been achieved and in so-called hard-to-abate sectors like domestic aviation and shipping. However, due to the sustainability and scalability limitations of biofuels, their use should be limited, and policies should set strict eligibility criteria to prevent competition for crops and land.11

In 2025, Germany pushed to undo the 2035 ban of new ICE vehicles at EU level, opting instead for a 90% reduction in CO2 emission standards from new vehicles by 2035 and emphasising that e-fuels should be able to make up the remainder. However, e-fuels are more expensive to produce and will likely drive costs up for consumers. If Germany brought forward the ban on new ICE vehicles and mandated a 100% BEV market share by 2030, it would bring it closer to aligning with 1.5oC compatible pathways similar to the HPA.12

Passenger EVs are increasingly becoming cost-competitive with ICE vehicles across member states, mostly for larger cars, with the cost gap closing further when considering the total cost of ownership over the vehicle’s lifetime.13 The CO2 standards regulation has been successful in driving down the price of EVs, and if it remains in place, smaller EVs could reach price parity before 2030.14 Cost savings from EVs compared to ICE vehicles are attributed to fuel use – electricity is far cheaper than petrol and diesel.15 Even during energy crises triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the 2026 US-Israel war on Iran, electricity prices remained comparatively cheaper than petrol and diesel prices at the pump.16

In response to the energy crisis triggered by the 2026 Iran war, the German government announced a EUR 1.6 bn rebate on petrol and diesel to shielded motorists from price increases.17 This is more than the EUR 1.5 bn the government spends annually on the “Deutschland Ticket” which gives citizens access to public transport. Additionally, it does nothing to reduce Germany’s dependence on fossil fuels, instead further entrenching their use.18 Meanwhile projects to expand Germany’s rail network have been delayed.

Passenger travel by rail remains low. Rail will be a crucial modal shift needed to reduce not only emissions but also limit overall investments in the transport sector. The EU’s rail system remains fragmented across member states, and the EU is also working on creating a harmonised ticketing system to streamline rail travel across EU member states

By 2040, synthetic fuels will play a role in domestic aviation and maritime transport, given the technological limitations of battery use in these modes. However, in the case of domestic shipping, fully battery powered vessels have now been demonstrated to be technologically feasible and economical for short coast and river transport, making use of synthetic fuel limited in this sector. 19

Germany's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions

MtCO₂/yr

Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).

1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from the HPA scenario for Germany

Indicator
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
137
100
71
43
21
14
7
Relative to reference year in %
-27%
-48%
-69%
-85%
-90%
-95%
Indicator
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Share of electricity
%
3
23
47
70
95
95
95
Share of hydrogen
%
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
Share of biofuels
%
6
6
10
12
2
2
2

All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on a carbon intensity threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.

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