What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Industry

Decarbonising the industry sector

Brazil's industrial sector contributed approximately 86 MtCO₂e per year in energy-related emissions, alongside 102 MtCO₂e from industrial processes in 2023— together representing around 19% of total national GHG emissions excluding LULUCF. Oil and gas represent around 30% of the energy mix in the sector. According to government data, industry accounted for almost 32% of national energy use in 2024.

Energy use in mining, steel, and pulp and paper, the largest industrial energy consumers, grew in 2024, reflecting the continued expansion of Brazil's commodity-producing industrial base1. Brazil's process emissions stood at 102 MtCO₂e in 2023. The largest sources of industrial process emissions in Brazil are steel (through the reduction of iron ore), cement (through limestone calcination), and chemicals (particularly fertiliser production).2

Brazil's steel industry currently relies heavily on emissions-intensive blast-furnace basic oxygen furnace technology (BF-BOF), with 76% of operating steel capacity using BF-BOF and just 24% using the lower-emissions electric arc furnace (EAF) alternative. A key structural vulnerability for the Brazilian steel industry is its heavy reliance on coke made from imported coal. Given Brazil does not produce coal domestically, there is a clear economic case for transitioning to green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron and EAF steelmaking as green hydrogen costs fall and the country invests in its production domestically.3

Brazil's energy mix in the industry sector

petajoule per year

Scaling

Fuel shares include both energy and non-energy use (eg. the use of oil to generate heat for industry use and as a feedstock to produce products such as plastics).

The HPA scenario requires a fundamental restructuring of the industry energy mix, with electrification as the primary driver of both efficiency gains and emissions reductions. Electricity more than triples its share of industrial energy demand by 2050 (62%) compared to 2023 (19%), becoming the dominant source and enabling deep decarbonisation across a wide range of industrial processes through the replacement of combustion with electric motors, heat pumps, and electrolytic processes. Green hydrogen emerges as a critical decarbonisation vector for hard-to-abate processes, growing from zero in 2023 to 14% by 2050. Priority applications for green hydrogen in Brazil are the hard-to-abate industrial sectors that require high-temperature heat and cannot be decarbonised through electrification alone — cement, steel, and fertilisers.

Solid biomass declines steadily as electricity and hydrogen take over, shrinking from around 40% in 2023 to roughly 5% by 2050, while liquid biofuels grow modestly as a transition fuel in chemicals and other hard-to-switch applications. Of the fossil fuels, coal exits first and fastest, being largely eliminated by 2035. Gas peaks in the early 2030s before being fully phased out by 2040. Oil is the last to go, declining steadily through 2035 and effectively eliminated by 2050. By mid-century, Brazilian industry runs primarily on electricity, green hydrogen, biofuels and biogas and residual biomass — with fossil fuels effectively eliminated.

Total industrial energy demand in the HPA scenario falls modestly from 4190 PJ in 2023 to 3960 PJ by 2030 — reflecting near-term efficiency gains and some structural change — before rising to 4250 PJ by 2035 and 4870 PJ by 2050, a 16% increase overall reflecting an increased and more efficient industrial activity as a result towards electrification and fuel switching: electric motors, heat pumps and electrolytic processes are substantially more energy-efficient than combustion-based equivalents.

Under the HPA scenario residual industrial process emissions of approximately 22 MtCO₂e persist post-2060, reflecting the structural limits of decarbonising calcination in cement production and certain chemical processes. These residual emissions will be challenging to fully eliminate, and will ultimately require carbon capture, novel materials, or demand-side measures to address fully.

Brazil's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
Industry emissions are lower than the fossil fuel use shown suggests, as part of it is used as petrochemical feedstock rather than burned and some CO₂ is captured (CCS). Except for China, India, Japan and the USA, which are their own regions in the model, both are based on regional averages.

Brazil's GHG emissions from industrial processes

MtCO₂e/yr

1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from the HPA scenario for Brazil

Indicator
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Industry sector decarbonised by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
86
66
31
5
-3
-7
-7
2037
Relative to reference year in %
-23%
-64%
-94%
-103%
-108%
-108%
Indicator
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
60
64
79
93
97
88
83

Fuel shares include both energy and non-energy use (eg. the use of oil to generate heat for industry use and as a feedstock to produce products such as plastics).
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on a carbon intensity threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.

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