What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions
Brazil emitted 1493 MtCO₂e in 2024, including land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). The country’s largest emitting sectors were agriculture and LULUCF, which together represented 60% of total emissions (42% and 18%, respectively). Methane accounts for over one-quarter of Brazil’s GHG emissions, with agriculture responsible for 70% of methane emissions.1 This reflects Brazil's role as a major agricultural producer and exporter – with soybeans and beef as prominent products.2
Agriculture and LULUCF emissions are structurally linked. Deforestation, driven by expansion of cattle ranching and soybean farming, remains the primary mechanism connecting the two sectors. Forest clearance across the Amazon and Cerrado biomes simultaneously generates LULUCF emissions and expands agricultural capacity.3 While Brazil has made progress in reducing deforestation rates since the 2004 peak, emissions from both sectors remain elevated, and the structural pressures underpinning land conversion have not been fundamentally resolved.
The energy sector accounted for 28% of Brazil's total emissions in 2024, with transport responsible for around half of energy-related emissions. The government projects that energy emissions will rise in the next decade under existing policies and could surpass the previous 2014 peak, driven by the expansion in gas production and growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors.4
Brazil's 2024 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy
Oil supplied 37% of Brazil’s primary energy in 2023, making it the country’s most used fuel type. This was followed by biomass (33%), non-biomass renewables (16%), and fossil gas (8%). Renewables, including biomass, reached a historic milestone in 2024 when they comprised exactly 50% of total primary energy supply, well above the global average of 14.3% and the OECD average of 13.2%.5 Industry and transport are the largest energy-consuming sectors, with each accounting for around one-third of national energy use.
The power sector reflects a more pronounced renewable profile. Renewables accounted for around 90% of electricity generation in 2024. This compares to a global renewable electricity share of 29.9%, and a 34% share across OECD countries. The high share of renewables places Brazil's electricity grid among the most decarbonised in the world.6
Looking ahead, Brazil's Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan7 projects the electricity mix will remain approximately 86% renewable through 2036, even as gas fired electricity generation capacity expands by 85% to provide backup for a grid still heavily dependent on hydropower and therefore vulnerable to hydrological variability, as well as to “service sectors where electrification is challenging”. Of the USD 639 billion (R$3.2 trillion) in total energy investment projected over the decade, 78% is directed to the oil and gas industry – a trajectory that is not aligned with the country's climate commitments. See the power section for more information on Brazil’s energy investments.