What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

In the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, emissions, which are projected to have already peaked in 2025, decline by 38% by 2035 and by 84% by 2040 compared to 2023. By 2050 they reach net zero. This is driven primarily by rapid electrification. In the HPA scenario, electrification accelerates rapidly — electricity rises from 0.2% today to 15.5% by 2035 and 82% by 2050, becoming the overwhelmingly dominant transport energy source by mid-century. As EVs take over road transport, oil is displaced first and most completely, phased out entirely by 2050, while liquid biofuels — which bridge the transition — peak around 2040 before declining sharply as electricity absorbs their remaining role. Synthetic fuels play a small part in specific heavy transport modes where electrification is not viable.

Under the HPA scenario, enhanced electrification results in significant energy savings due to the increased energy efficiency offered by electricity as a fuel. Total transport energy demand falls by 13% below 2023 levels in 2035 as efficiency gains and electrification reduce energy waste, before declining to roughly 40% below 2023 levels in 2050.

While biofuels play an important bridging role in the near term, and leverage Brazil’s existing capacity, their long-term expansion carries significant risks. Without stringent safeguards governing land and water use and protecting land rights, the demand for feedstocks required to produce biofuels can drive deforestation, water stress and displacement of traditional land users.³3 The HPA pathway sees biofuels declining sharply after 2040 as electricity takes over, rather than scaling further.

The change required under the HPA scenario represents a break from Brazil’s traditional transport policy, which has favoured incremental modernisation and protection for domestic industry. Brazil has significant industrial capacity and a long history of biofuel use. Its steps towards electrification remain insufficient, while support for combustion technologies remains strong.

The Green Mobility and Innovation Programme (MOVER), launched in June 2024, sets stricter environmental standards and has spurred over USD 26 billion in announced automotive investments, particularly for flex-fuel and hybrid-flex technologies, positioning decarbonisation as an industrial opportunity. It establishes mandatory energy efficiency and carbon equivalent emission targets for new light and heavy-duty vehicles and introduces a bonus-malus tax mechanism based on vehicle emissions.⁴4 However, heavy reliance on flex fuel and hybrid vehicles can slow the deep electrification required to align with the HPA scenario. The Fuels of the Future programme complements this by raising biodiesel blending mandates and supporting sustainable aviation fuels, reflecting Brazil's strategic interest in maintaining its biofuel leadership.⁵5

However, the policy gaps are significant. Brazil has no binding target for EVs’ share of vehicle sales. Road transport currently accounts for approximately 65% of freight movement.⁶6 Shifting passenger travel from private vehicles to public transport and shared mobility, and freight to lower-carbon options such as electrified rail, must be a central pillar of Brazil’s transport strategy alongside changes in vehicle technology.