What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Long-term pathway

Globally, warming will only stop when global CO₂ emissions reach net zero and will start to decline when the world reaches and sustains net-negative CO₂ emissions. Globally, the HPA scenario reaches net zero CO₂ around 2045 and net zero GHGs around 2060.

Brazil has committed to achieving “climate neutrality” by 2050, a target reiterated in its 2024 NDC submission ahead of COP30.¹1 However, no long-term strategy has been submitted to the UNFCCC to date, and no detailed sectoral pathway exists outlining how this goal will be reached.

According to the HPA scenario, Brazil could reduce its GHG emissions by 23% and 77% (excluding LULUCF) below 2005 levels by 2035 and 2050, respectively. By 2070, the HPA scenario would see GHG emissions fall to around 25 MtCO₂e, a 97% reduction below 2005 levels. Under current policies, Brazil's CO₂ emissions excluding LULUCF are projected to plateau through 2030. The 1.5°C compatible HPA pathway requires a steep decline from 2030, with net zero CO₂ emissions achieved between 2040 and 2045.

Achieving net zero GHG emissions will require CDR to compensate for residual emissions. The HPA scenario also shows the need to reach net-negative GHG emissions to bring temperatures back down below 1.5ºC as fast as possible. In the HPA, global net-negative emissions are sustained over 2060–2100.

The exact distribution of a future net-negative emissions regime, both in terms of where CDR is deployed to achieve net-negative emissions and how this CDR is financed, is an active area of research. We are conducting further research on this presently. Our current results for this net-negative regime should therefore be seen as preliminary and subject to further revision.

What happens after reaching net zero will be a function of global and national policy responses, international collaboration on CDR, and technological progress in scaling removals and will be investigated further in future stages of the project.

CDR is indispensable for Brazil to reach and sustain net-negative emissions at scale. Research emphasises that halting deforestation and scaling native vegetation restoration is a cost-effective near-term CDR lever available to Brazil, giving it a comparative advantage over other major economies.²2

Brazil's National Mitigation Strategy³3 foresees the land use sector becoming a significant net sink by 2035. Public and private lands are projected to sequester a combined 278-284 MtCO₂e by 2035. It is important to note that the pathway foreseen under the HPA scenario excludes LULUCF; including land-based removals brings forward the projected date of net zero, although the timing is more uncertain.

Recent research cautions that global reforestation potential has been widely overstated in previous estimates, with constrained reforestation potential found to be 71–92% smaller than previously mapped once ecological safeguards, fire dynamics, and social considerations are properly accounted for. While Brazil shows higher potential than most other regions, particularly in the Amazon region, most of its land areas do not present reforestation potential above 2%. ⁴4 This underscores that land-based CDR, while essential and uniquely accessible to Brazil given its forest resources, cannot substitute for deep decarbonisation across agriculture, industry, transport and energy — sectors which will also need to undergo fundamental transformation to achieve net negativity.

Achieving net-negative emissions requires the energy system to move decisively away from fossil gas and oil towards full electrification underpinned by 100% renewables, with green hydrogen addressing hard-to-abate emissions. Residual emissions need to be minimised as much as possible, including through demand-side interventions.

Agriculture, which is responsible for 42% of Brazilian GHG emissions and over 75% of methane emissions, will also need to adopt low-carbon practices at scale, including no-till farming, agroforestry, integrated crop-livestock systems, recovery of degraded pasture, and a shift away from carbon- and methane-intensive livestock production.⁵5 This transition has so far remained limited: Brazil's main agricultural financing instrument, the Plano Safra, continues to be associated with increases in GHG emissions, while RenovaAgro, the policy incentivising low-carbon agriculture, has never surpassed 4% of total rural credit.