What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Primary energy
Primary energy
Renewables already play a large role in Brazil's primary energy mix, accounting for nearly 50% of total primary energy supply in 2023. This is largely driven by biomass (33% of total primary energy supply, including 16.7% from sugarcane) and hydropower (11.6%), and both of which together have long underpinned Brazil's relatively clean energy profile. Fossil fuels met the other half of demand, with oil in particular still widely used at 37% of national demand. This was followed by natural gas (8.42%) and coal (4.42%). In the Brazilian case, decarbonising primary energy also raises concerns about land use, as expanding biomass production can drive deforestation, water stress and displacement of traditional land users. Overall, there has been gradual but steady progress since 2015, when renewables accounted for 41.5% of the mix, with the renewable share rising incrementally each year to reach the 50% threshold in 2024.1
Brazil has scaled wind and solar rapidly over the past decade, pushing the share of fossil gas in primary energy from 13.6% in 2015 to 9.6% in 2024 — even as gas-fired electricity generation has grown in absolute terms as backup capacity. Brazil's continued rollout of wind and solar will likely sustain or increase the share of renewables in the primary energy mix, while also improving system efficiency through greater electrification across end-use sectors. However, the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan simultaneously projects a near-doubling of domestic natural gas production and allocates 78% of approximately R$3.2 trillion in total sectoral investment to oil and gas.2 This suggests that Brazil's primary energy mix will remain significantly shaped by fossil fuels over the coming decade.
Brazil's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
-
Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
-
Under the HPA scenario, Brazil's primary energy system undergoes a complete fossil fuel phase-out by mid-century. Oil declines steadily through 2040 and is effectively eliminated by 2050. Gas follows a similar trajectory, phased out by 2040, while coal, already marginal, is largely phased out by 2035 (<1%). On the other side of the transition, renewables scale further as electrification deepens across transport, buildings and industry, with electricity and green hydrogen absorbing demand that fossil fuels currently meet. Total primary energy demand remains broadly stable through 2035 before rising modestly as efficiency gains from electric technologies offset growth in energy demand.
Biomass peaks at around 49% of the mix in 2040 before declining as the system electrifies further. By 2070, non-biomass renewables would comprise 82% of primary energy, while biomass falls to 17% — slightly below its present level in absolute terms. While biomass use is rapidly phased down in end use sectors, it is used to produce electricity, biofuel and other synthetic fuels, and hydrogen for use in hard-to-electrify segments of transport and industry. A significant share of biomass in primary energy (45%) is also lost in transformation.
The transformation in primary energy is driven by a large increase in non-biomass renewables — solar, wind, and hydropower — which rise from 16% in 2023 to 32% by 2035 and 58% by 2050. This translates to a highly electrified system that improves efficiency, flexibility, and energy security, building on the already advanced decarbonisation of Brazil's power sector.