What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Electrification accelerates under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, rising from 62% in 2023 to 69% by 2030 and 85% by 2035. Electricity progressively displaces both fossil fuels and biomass from the sector: fossil fuels are effectively phased out by 2040, while solid biomass declines from 18% in 2023 to less than 4% by 2035 and near zero by 2040. By mid-century, electricity meets 96% of the buildings sector’s energy demand%. In terms of emissions, this translates to an 75% reduction below 2023 levels by 2035 (to around 5 MtCO₂/yr), and net zero by 2045.

Total buildings energy demand in the HPA scenario remains roughly stable through 2035 at around 1,800PJ, as efficiency gains from using electricity and the phase-out of relatively wasteful biomass combustion offset underlying demand growth. From 2040 onwards, however, total demand rises substantially. This growth is met almost entirely by electricity, which more than doubles from 2023 levels to 2480 PJ by 2050. One of the drivers of rising electricity demand in buildings is likely space cooling. Electricity demand for air conditioning in the Brazilian residential sector has more than tripled in the last twelve years, with household air conditioner ownership increasing by around 9% per year.¹1 This is expected to further increase as temperatures rise and the economy grows.

Brazil has a long-standing building energy efficiency framework, anchored by the Brazilian Labelling Programme (PBE), established in 1984, and the PROCEL Edifica programme for buildings. A new residential building efficiency methodology (INI-R) became mandatory from May 2024, aligning Brazil's labelling scheme with the national residential performance standard NBR 15575/2021 and enabling consumers to access information on a building's potential energy consumption.²2 Average air conditioner energy consumption has already been reduced by over 20% between 2005 and 2024 as a result of minimum efficiency regulations. Strengthening mandatory standards — particularly for new residential construction and major renovations — would be a key lever to close the efficiency gap and reduce the electrification strain on the grid. Ambitious energy performance standards and appliance efficiency measures could support additional efficiency gains.