What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Future Pathway
Current trends and future pathway
Türkiye 2035 NDC target would allow emissions to rise to 557-614 MtCO2e, or 16-28% above 2015 levels. 1 The NDC target fails to drive emissions reductions beyond what would already be achieved under current policies.
According to current policy projections, Türkiye’s emissions are expected to reach 551-641 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF), or 15-33% above 2015 levels by 2035.2 Aligning with 1.5°C under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario requires Türkiye’s emissions to fall to 254 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF) by 2035.
Rising energy demand due to Türkiye’s growing population and rising GDP are the driving forces behind Türkiye’s increasing emissions, with demand rising across the buildings, transport, and industry sectors.3 Accelerating the wind and solar rollout, combined with electrification of end-use sectors, can bend the growth in both demand and emissions downwards. As electrification technologies are 2-4 times more energy efficient than fossil fuel-based ones, scaling up clean energy can meet the needs of a growing economy while reducing final energy demand.
In November 2026, Türkiye will host COP31. In this role Türkiye will take on the role of COP Presidency and drive ambition to align with the UNFCCC’s 1.5°C target. The importance of a COP Presidency in leading from the front is all the more striking given Türkiye’s own insufficient ambition. A 2025 advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice, which states that support for fossil fuels may constitute a wrongful act under international law,4 shines further light on the gap between Türkiye’s position as COP31 host and its domestic climate ambition.
Türkiye's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
The HPA scenario shows the importance of reaching global net zero CO2 emissions before 2050 and net zero GHG emissions by 2060. Achieving net zero will require CDR to compensate for remaining residual emissions (for example in agriculture and industrial processes).
The exact distribution of a future net-negative emissions regime, both in terms of where CDR is deployed to achieve net-negative emissions, and how this CDR is financed, is an active area of research. We are conducting further research on this presently. Our current results for this net-negative regime should be seen as preliminary and subject to further revision.
Türkiye has released multiple sectoral decarbonisation roadmaps (aluminium, cement, fertilisers, and steel).5 These roadmaps rely on carbon capture and storage (CCS) for sectoral decarbonisation. While CCS will be necessary to align with 1.5°C, its use should be limited due to its high costs vis-à-vis other emissions reductions options. Maintaining and enhancing the LULUCF sink represents a cheaper and more sustainable way to balance out residual agriculture and industrial emissions.
Türkiye aims to achieve net zero by 2053, but does not specify whether this covers all GHGs.6 Türkiye already benefits from a land sink of 69 MtCO2e (2023). If this land sink is maintained, Türkiye’s net zero target would translate to 69 MtCO2e/yr by 2053 excluding LULUCF.
To align with 1.5°C, Türkiye’s GHG emissions would not be higher than 65 MtCO2e in 2050, or 87% below 2015 levels (excl. LULUCF). Türkiye’s 2053 target is therefore broadly aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, pending additional details on the scope of the target. However, the target’s pathways allow emissions to peak in 2038 and rely on deep emission reductions between 2038-2053. Action this decade is essential to peak emissions as soon as possible, reduce peak temperatures and support long-term temperature decline globally.
Türkiye's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathway. The 1.5°C compatible pathway is based on the HPA scenario and shows total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks for Türkiye. Benchmarks are based on the HPA scenario. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
481
|
552
|
402
|
254
|
132
|
65
|
61
|
53
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-16%
|
-47%
|
-73%
|
-86%
|
-87%
|
-89%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
332
|
382
|
250
|
121
|
17
|
-19
|
-13
|
-13
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-25%
|
-64%
|
-95%
|
-106%
|
-104%
|
-104%
|
||
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
408
|
483
|
||||||
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
||||||||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
259
|
313
|
||||||
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
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Methodology
Data References
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