What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Deep electrification will be pivotal to aligning Türkiye’s power supply with 1.5°C. By 2035, renewables would meet 95% of electricity generation, with almost 76% from wind and solar alone (up from 17% in 2023). Coal would reduce its share to roughly 3% (down from 11% in 2030), while fossil gas would meet the remaining 2%, mainly as dispatchable backup generation. Alongside a wind and solar rollout, phasing out coal is vital for a 1.5°C compatible grid. Türkiye’s current targets would see renewables (incl. biomass and hydro) account for 71% of capacity in 2035.²2 Aside from nuclear (which is expected to make up 3% of capacity in 2035),³3 the remaining 26% share will be met by fossil fuels.

To meet the 71% generation target, Türkiye’s Renewable Energy Roadmap aims to roll out wind and solar at a rate of 7.5-8 GW/yr until 2035. This would see wind and solar levels quadruple compared to 2023 levels to an installed capacity of 120 GW. This rollout is already bringing significant economic benefits; the wind and solar rollout has already cut household energy bills by 9%, while fossil fuel-heavy hours increase prices for consumers.⁴4 Scaling this ambition up to align with 1.5°C can further compound the economic benefits of electrification.

The Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario assumes a post 2035 coal phase out for Türkiye. It is in the country's interest to further accelerate efforts towards coal phase-out, deploy renewables, build and expand infrastructure and align with this milestone to the maximum possible extent.

Investments worth USD 20 billion are being directed towards energy efficiency projects between 2024-2030, which are projected to avoid 100 MtCO₂e (across the entire economy).⁵5 Despite these energy efficiency gains, the government still expects electricity demand to rise to 510.5 TWh by 2035 (55% above 2023 levels, or 180.5 TWh).⁶6

Under the HPA scenario, electricity demand would climb higher than current government projections, to 579 TWh by 2035. This is a result of deeper electrification of end-use sectors. This higher demand in the medium term under a 1.5°C compatible pathway results from faster electrification, as effort needs to be frontloaded to peak emissions as soon as possible. Aligning accelerated electrification with grid and storage expansion will be critical to ensuring the grid can handle higher demand. To manage the need for grid expansion, energy efficiency measures, smart charging, community batteries, and time-of-use tariffs can all contribute to reducing load on the grid, considerably reducing grid expansion costs.

By 2050, demand projections under the HPA scenario and the government’s scenario reverse. While the government projects 1271 TWh by 2053, the HPA scenario would see demand reach around 990 TWh in 2050.⁷7 This is due to the system being drastically electrified under the HPA scenario by the 2050s. Electrification is far more efficient than fossil fuels and those efficiencies compound over time, leading to significant reductions in consumption. While Türkiye envisions a 31% share for fossil fuels and nuclear in 2053, the HPA scenario sees a fully renewables-based grid, with a significantly higher share of wind (38%) replacing hydro’s share of the mix (5%).⁸8