What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, transport CO₂ emissions would fall to 91 MtCO₂ by 2030, which would be a similar level to what was emitted in 2022. By 2050 this would drop further, to 20 MtCO₂. These reductions would come from cutting oil’s share of the transport energy mix to 89% by 2030 and phasing it out fully by 2050.

Under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, the share of electricity in Türkiye’s transport sector would rise to 9% in 2030, 53% in 2040, and 86% by 2050. Subsidies which promote electric vehicles (EVs) and the expansion of charging infrastructure will be key to aligning transport policy with the HPA scenario.

Given the growing domestic production of EVs in Türkiye and severe car-related pollution in urban areas, supporting domestic uptake can stimulate economic growth while improving health outcomes.³3^{, 4}4 The government aims to develop a fast-charging station network to meet rapidly growing consumer demand for EVs, with around one-third of charging stations being fast DC chargers. ⁵5^{, 6}6 This is paying off, with the share of fully electric vehicles in new car sales rising in recent years to align with levels seen in the European Union.⁷7 However, given gasoline consumption continues to increase, greater ambition is needed to bring the transport sector in line with 1.5°C. ⁸8 As indicated by the continued growth in new car registrations, car ownership is expected to continue rising.⁹9 Leapfrogging internal combustion engine (ICE) cars by providing affordable EVs to first time car owners will allow Türkiye to decouple car ownership from emissions.

In the HPA scenario, the share of bio and synthetic fuels grows throughout the 2030s, accounting for 12% in 2040 and stabilising thereafter. Synthetic fuels will play an important role in long-distance aviation and maritime transport, given the technological limitations of battery use in these modes. While biofuels are useful for reducing the carbon intensity of ICE vehicles, they carry sustainability and scalability limitations, so their use should be limited as much as possible.

A key aspect of a 1.5°C compatible transport sector is demand reduction through increased efficiency. The HPA scenario indicates a 28% reduction in energy demand between 2023-2035 for the Turkish transport sector. Higher shares of EVs on the roads can unlock some of these reductions, as EVs are 2-4x more efficient than ICEs. Additionally, a modal shift away from cars can promote further efficiency gains.

Istanbul is the most congested city in the world, with the average driver sitting in traffic for 118 hours – or almost five full days – during 2025.¹⁰10 Without clear public policy, the problem will only worsen as car ownership grows. There has been some movement to address this by investing in public transport. Local authorities in Istanbul plan to build 120 km of bus-only lanes throughout the city,¹¹11 and in 2026 the national government announced plans to invest USD 6 billion in rail projects across Türkiye, to be completed by 2032.¹²12 Given the severity of Türkiye’s congestion issues, however, greater ambition is needed. These efforts can be complemented by a holistic policy package which revolves around greater investment in public transport, improved zoning regulations, and development of more accessible bike and walking lanes.