What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Electrification would form the foundation of a 1.5°C compatible industry sector, meeting 57% of industrial electricity demand by 2035, essentially doubling from 2023 (28%). This can lead to significant savings for industrial consumers. Already, a typical industrial facility in Türkiye saves USD 250,000 annually due to wind and solar generation, compared to if they were reliant on fossil fuels.³3 Ramping up wind and solar can unlock significant savings for Turkish industry, be that through decarbonising the grid or by streamlining permitting processes for on-site renewables generation near factories.

Aligning with the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario would see direct CO₂ emissions reach zero by 2047, though residual emissions from industrial processes would continue post-2050. Implementing the scenario would see a staggered phase out of fossil fuels from Türkiye’s industry sector. Coal’s phase out should be prioritised, with its share in the mix falling to 4% by 2030. The absolute volume of gas being used for industry would remain unchanged until 2030 as the coal phase out is prioritised, before rapidly declining throughout the 2030s and being fully phased out by 2040. Oil would be fully phased out in the 2040s.

According to its national hydrogen strategy, Türkiye aims to bring 5 GW of installed electrolyser capacity online by 2035.⁴4 The most effective application of hydrogen is in hard-to-abate industrial processes which require extremely high temperatures, such as cement kilns and glass furnaces. In the HPA scenario, hydrogen would meet around 6% of industry’s energy demand, doubling to 12% by 2040 and plateauing thereafter.

Aligning with 1.5°C will require transformative policy measures to decouple industrial output from emissions. Türkiye’s introduction of an Emissions Trading System (ETS), which enters its pilot phase in 2026, holds significant potential to cut industry emissions.⁵5 The relatively swift introduction of the ETS as a response to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism demonstrates Türkiye’s ability to implement transformative policies when there is sufficient ambition.

Bringing Türkiye’s industry sector in line with 1.5°C will require further decarbonisation measures beyond the ETS. Türkiye has released multiple roadmaps to decarbonise harder-to-abate its aluminium, cement, fertilisers, and steel sectors. However, the roadmaps (particularly cement) lean heavily on carbon capture and storage (CCS), which is yet unproven at scale.⁶6^,77 Near term emissions reduction policies such as clinker substitution and public procurement policies which prioritise low carbon cement can drive emissions reductions more cost-effectively.⁸8

Türkiye can accelerate emissions reductions through mandated energy efficiency improvements along with subsidies to support meeting those mandates. Heat pumps and smart technologies can simultaneously reduce energy demand while enabling deeper electrification.⁹9 Use of industrial heat pumps for temperatures below 140°C is well established, with innovation increasingly showing applicability to temperatures to 250°C.¹⁰10 On-site renewable projects near factories can generate electricity for self-consumption, with projects exceeding 1 GW already underway in Türkiye.¹¹11 A regulatory environment which allows companies to reap the full economic benefits of renewables, both for their own energy use as well as when selling electricity back to the grid, can unlock new sources of income for Turkish industry and further increase their export competitiveness.