What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

The Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario shows that, to align with 1.5°C, Türkiye should ramp up electrification, helping to push fossil fuels out of the system. Electricity’s share in the buildings’ fuel mix can increase from 32% in 2023 to 66% in 2035 and >90% post-2050. The fossil phase-out would take a staggered approach, with coal being the priority. By 2030, coal’s share of the mix can fall to 1%. Throughout the 2030s gas would see a sustained decline in its use until it is phased out by 2040.

Türkiye heavily subsidises fossil gas for residential buildings.³3 To strengthen the economic case for heat pumps, the Turkish government can implement subsidy reform which merges environmental concerns with socio-economic ones, ensuring that clean technologies are used while protecting low-income households during the transition away from gas. This is particularly relevant since the 2026 war in Iran, which has impacted gas prices and balances the cost between electricity and gas. Heat pump uptake is growing due to buildings energy standards. However, unlike Western Europe where subsidies drive uptake, Türkiye’s reliance on regulatory standards without subsidy support for homeowners limits the heat pump rollout.⁴4

Türkiye has huge potential to integrate rooftop solar into its buildings stock, with potential capacity of over 120 GW.⁵5 Rooftop solar not only cuts household bills but also takes pressure off the grid when paired with battery technologies. Heat pumps supplied by rooftop solar are already cheaper than heavily subsidised gas, though upfront costs remain a barrier for many households.⁶6 Support to ease the initial investment through grants or subsidies can have a significant effect on buildings emissions.

Additionally, retrofitting Türkiye’s buildings stock – much of which has poor insulation – can reduce energy demand in line with the HPA scenario, which sees demand fall by 12% by 2035 while cutting energy bills for households.⁷7