What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Primary Energy
Primary energy
In 2023, fossil fuels accounted for 82% of Türkiye’s primary energy mix. The split between coal, oil and gas was relatively even.
Although renewables (including hydropower) account for only 15% of the mix, their share is growing due to investment in wind and solar capacity,1 which has accelerated due to a competitive tender process, corporate power purchase agreements, and targeted policies including investments in transmission infrastructure.2,3 Hydropower has long been a staple of Türkiye’s primary energy mix, and its share remains relatively stable, aside from annual fluctuations due to rainfall and drought conditions. Biomass contributes a 3% share, with absolute levels continuing to grow.4
Türkiye is also investing in nuclear capacity, and expects one reactor in its first nuclear power plant – the 4.2 GW Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant – to be commissioned in 2026.5
Since 2000, Türkiye’s energy demand has grown by over 3% per year, while the OECD average was 0.1%).6 Historically this demand has primarily been met by imported fossil fuels, but in recent years the state has pivoted to supporting a wide portfolio of domestic energy sources to meet this demand.7 While this has led to record levels of wind and solar coming online, it has also involved expanding fossil gas, oil and even coal production. Through this targeted effort to increase domestic fossil fuel production, since 2017 fuel imports have remained relatively stable even though energy demand has increased.
As a result of Türkiye’s emphasis on domestic production, multiple competing trends have emerged: on the one hand Türkiye ranks fifth in Europe in terms of renewable energy production, while on the other it has overtaken Germany to be the largest producer of coal-fired power in Europe.8,9
Türkiye's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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According to the HPA Scenario, aligning with 1.5°C will see Türkiye’s wind and solar capacity ramped up faster than current plans. By 2035, 57% of Türkiye’s primary energy supply would come from non-bio renewables (primarily wind and solar, but also hydro and geothermal). A further 8% would be supplied by biomass. These measures can allow Türkiye to meet both its energy needs and its Paris Agreement obligations. These trends continue out to 2050, with renewables (incl. biomass) fully displacing fossil fuels.
Due to the deep electrification seen in the HPA scenario, primary energy demand decreases through to 2040, when it reaches a trough of 29% below 2023 levels. This is a direct result of efficiency gains seen from electric technologies like electric vehicles and heat pumps, which are 2-4 times more energy efficient than their fossil fuel-based counterparts. Demand rises post-2040 when the efficiency gains resulting from swapping fossil fuel technologies for electric ones is maxed out, and rising consumption results in a rise in final energy demand. Nevertheless, demand does not reach the fossil fuel-related heights seen in 2023.
Through a range of recent policy initiatives – including the wind and solar rollout, the growing electrification of transport, and energy efficiency measures – Türkiye already has many of the policies in place which are needed to align with 1.5°C. What is needed now is faster implementation to allow for a course correction on projected fossil fuel use.